DC/DCC

[doctorwayne]

As long as I'm still around, there'll be no demise of DC.

Thats exactly it. when you're not doing trains anymore, everyone left will be DCC

Hey, I'm not gonna be around that long! Surely there'll be a handful of other holdouts left after I've gone.

Just like those new fangled i-Phones and Xbox 360s replaced home phones and board games, DCC is probably going to replace DC as the primary mode of train control. Its the younger generation that i think is really embracing DCC, as all the young people i know that have moved off the "floor" to a reasonable set up either has DCC, or is saving for DCC.

There are plenty of older modellers embracing it, too, in part because they're the ones who can afford it. Kid just starting out (and I think that their numbers are dwindling rapidly) don't have the money to jump directly into DCC and even if it becomes the default standard, prices still won't compare to what one could get in DC when I started out.
Another part of the picture that many don't seem to consider is the attention span of many getting into model railroading for the first time nowadays. Like many, an early attraction to trains lead me to model trains, but real trains figure into day-to-day life much less than they formerly did. So fewer are being attracted to the hobby initially. With most stuff becoming ready-to-run, with DCC control and everything more-or-less pre-packaged, I don't think that there's enough to hold the attention of the next generation - once the novelty of the gadgetry wears off, they'll wander off to the next "latest thing". Sure, some will stay, but I think that the hobby will begin to die out as the current crop of modellers thins. I came to the hobby because of the trains, but I stayed in it because of what it offered in historical interest, and for the opportunity (and in some cases, requirement) of learning new skills. I'm still learning to this day, and the hobby remains as interesting and attractive to me as it ever was.

And don't forget, this is the age of instant gratification. Sure, a DC set up can do almost everything a DCC one can, but DCC does it easier. On a small layout, it adds versatility running the train that you wouldn't get on a block wired layout, and on larger ones, it lets you fine tune all your equipment so it runs the same speed in an MU, and all sorts of realistic lighting and things that would be tricky to do in DC. Again, its possible, but people will choose the simplest path.

Depending on what one wishes to do, either one can be the easier path. My dog probably could have wired my layout, but he couldn't hold the soldering iron and the solder at the same time.
I run multiple locos, pushers, etc. all without programming anything. I don't use working lights 'cause I don't run "nighttime" operations (and my prototype didn't use lit headlights in the daytime in my modelling era). As a lone operator, it's my opinion that I should be in control of any train that's moving, so only one moves at a time. Suits me perfectly. I don't want sound, either - after almost 40 years in a steel mill, I've had enough "sound" for several lifetimes.

However, that which works for me would be the kiss of death for a model railroad club - members would leave in droves if there wasn't something for everybody to do. DCC is perfect for such a scenario and much simpler than DC. While I may be a Luddite in many things, I do see the benefits of DCC - I just don't see them as benefits for my particular situation.

I am afraid in some time (years) DCC decoders will be installed in all locomotives by default. That will be true for the entry level market too...

...At that time there are no newcomers asking for a more expensive locomotive without the DCC functionality they are used to from their first day.
That is my prediction of the DCC future.

Thats not going to happen, simply because people want to install their own decoders. In fact, this is exactly WHY many people i know hate those bachmann engines. There is no easy way to install a different brand, and there are questions of bachmann's "Quality", especially with their standard line stuff. I have one of their E60CPs that came with the decoder, and it can be frustrating.

People nowadays may want to install their own decoders, but I don't think that the majority of the next generation of modellers will. Most won't know (or care) if their geep sounds like a Baldwin, and they'll likely know little of operations, so running characteristics are just another option with which to fiddle. And will anyone even know how to solder? Maybe they won't have to, but if there's no challenge, is there any sustainable interest? Even little kids get bored watching a train go around in circles.
If the "techie" generation of modellers loses interest, the "techie" generation of manufacturers will, too. No market - no money. No money - no products. Cottage industries will undoubtedly fill some of the limited demand for supplies, but I think there'll be just as many left still using DC as there will be with DCC (or whatever else comes along to replace it).

Wayne