Poll: How old are you?
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0-20
1.69%
1 1.69%
21-40
23.73%
14 23.73%
41-60
45.76%
27 45.76%
61-80
27.12%
16 27.12%
81+
1.69%
1 1.69%
Total 59 vote(s) 100%
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The future of model railroading.
#31
Terry,Commercial slot car racing is still going strong in some areas but one almost needs a paying sponsor to stay competitive -its no longer a hobby for kids.

Take a look at a 1/32nd NASCAR slot car-if you dare. Icon_lol

<!-- m --><a class="postlink" href="http://ovaltrackmodels.com/jj8-06d.jpg">http://ovaltrackmodels.com/jj8-06d.jpg</a><!-- m -->

As far as our hobby the younger crowd is demanding more and more details and is willing to pay however,ISL is becoming a preferred layout for small areas instead of a old fashion 4x8 looper..I wouldn't be surprise if we see a growth of new MRR "super" clubs.
Larry
Engineman

Summerset Ry

Make Safety your first thought, Not your last!  Safety First!
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#32
I didn't realize that slot cars were still running to any extent .....remember the drag racing slots that would do the scale 1/4 mile in about one or two seconds ?

This got me to thinking about the one slot track I ALMOST bought . It was early '60's I think and it was Revell or AMT with a figure 8 , two 1/25 cars that were somewhat steerable ....bet that would be worth a few bucks today , .....like the Lionel " girls train " with the multi-coloured locos and cars ....worth a bunch of $$ last I saw . We laughed at it , as kids .

T
To err is human, to blame it on somebody else shows management potential.
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#33
Like the one in this photo.     Big Grin
Robert
Modeling the Canadian National prairie region in 1959.
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#34
...so YOU were the one guy that bought that layout Goldth Goldth

T
To err is human, to blame it on somebody else shows management potential.
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#35
This one was bought in the 1980s. But I know that at least two were sold by a hobby shop in our city in the late 1950s or early 60s.
Robert
Modeling the Canadian National prairie region in 1959.
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#36
So the future of model railroading is pink O-gauge trains.... 35
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#37
...I'm thinkin' purple Big Grin .....I saw that Lionel " train set " in the front window of a big department store in Detroit ,late '50's , back when running trains in display windows at Christmas was a big deal . I think I still had my Marx O scale at the time and the sight of all the bright colours was an attention grabber . No , I didn't go home and paint by Marx loco pink . Goldth

T
To err is human, to blame it on somebody else shows management potential.
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#38
The Girls set in the pic is missing the caboose (or it's off camera) and the last two cars are not part of the set. It was re-issued in the 80's and again around the early 2000's. The re-issues are worth a few hundred in new condition but the orginal made in the 50's can bring as much as $2000 in mint condition w/the orginal boxes. Book price though is probably closer to $1500. There was a comment earlier about Lionel might be the last trains still made in America, sadly no. They went to China sometime in the 80's I think it was. For those that don't know me, I'm not a collector and I really don't have any interest in Lionel trains for myself as I'm a scale modeler but I do work in a Lionel Museum.
Mike

Sent from my pocket calculator using two tin cans and a string
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#39
I certainly remember the Lionel Girl Train Set from the 50's. The local dealer in Danville, KY, had one set in stock and as far as I know, never sold it, at least they hadn't when I moved away in 1961.

How many of you fellows on here remember the Lionel TV commercial's of the late 50's showing trains zooming around a layout at 100mph and up and over; demonstrating their "Magna-Traction" feature?
Ed
"Friends don't let friends build Timesavers"
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#40
Ed,I can remember that and how my eyes stayed glued to the screen(IIRC a whopper-15") all through those Lionel commericals..I also recall the American Flier commercials of the mid 50s-usually starting Thanksgiving Day till Christmas..IIRC "Other toy trains may be bigger but,ours was made for small hands". Icon_lol
Larry
Engineman

Summerset Ry

Make Safety your first thought, Not your last!  Safety First!
Reply
#41
Tyson Rayles I bought this set in the 80s but it is an original 1957-8 set. The violet open hopper is from the set, the second one I found at the local train show last year on a consignment table for $5.00. I couldn't get my wallet out fast enough. Big Grin Sorry for hijacking the thread FCIN but I couldn't resist throwing in that picture.
Back on topic, I do not think that the hobby is going to change much in the next 10 or 20 years. The numbers on your graph show a nice almost perfect bell curve at this time, that means as older hobbyists leave about the same number of younger or new people are coming in. The manufacturers may place less emphases on the transition era ( steam to diesel ) and make more modern era trains. I do see more advancements in technology and animation. As for trains in cyberspace I really don't think this will really take off. I know of only one person with a layout on his computer, but even for me it is to uninteresting and boring, let alone for young people of today who want shot em up car chase video games. By the way he is in the 61 to 80 group.

By the way I also model HO scale, We just finished our weekly Wednesday night operating session, but we only had four operators but still lots of fun. :mrgreen:
Robert
Modeling the Canadian National prairie region in 1959.
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#42
My interpretation of how the present is going to influence the future:

As has been pointed out, the mainstream plastic and die cast model producers are in a tightening increasing cost and reduced production spiral, similar to what brass went through in the '80s and '90s. I don't see any easy way out, especially with an aging customer base. Yes, there are new younger modelers, but I don't think they have the same numbers in the hobby as the baby boomers. So as the boomers age and die off, the number of model railroaders is going to contract somewhat. Not disappear, just contract. And the highly detailed mass produced plastic and die cast models are going to die out due to price/run size spiral. There will be high cost, small production runs remaining just as there is currently in O gauge and HO brass.

At the same time, flying beneath the radar of hobby shops and the hobby magazines, supplying the craftsman side of the hobby with low rate production kits is growing much faster than I would have anticipated. 3-D printing may push this trend even faster - the initial results are just starting to come out. But just home-based resin casting and laser cutting is growing weekly. It used to be for such a venture to get started required advertising in the hobby magazines to get noticed at all. But with on-line sales and ability to announce new products through various Internet forums, the entry costs associated with advertising and finding a distributor are no longer requirements. As an indication, for the more popular craftsman kits, you may have to wait a year after you order. I just saved the money and ordered a Keystone Shay mechanism - expected shipment is next Jan. I have run into six month delays between order and shipping for specific resin car kits. I am now spending about half my hobby budget ordering directly from small manufacturers instead of through my LHS.

Many of these small manufacturers will not distribute through Walthers because of Walthers requirements for production quantities and delivery dates, and because of the necessary discount they have to give Walthers. They can sell what they produce directly. This puts the LHS in a bind having to deal directly with dozens of manufacturers instead of ordering through a distributor.

To me, the implication for the future is a growing gulf between the train set folks and the "serious" modelers. Kalmbach used to have a magazine called Model Trains specifically aimed at promoting train set owners into model railroaders. Kalmbach gave up on the magazine because you only repeat yourself so many time in a monthly magazine. Model Railroader took over some of that function with their project layouts. When plastic (and modern die-cast) production became as nearly detailed as brass had been, the entry bar to become a model railroader reached its lowest point. Right now, you can virtually buy everything for a decent-looking and running layout RTR, no large learning curve required, right at your LHS. But, as discussed, the costs of the RTR approach are rising much faster than US inflation. In the '50s, becoming a model railroader required one to learn to build kits - not necessarily a trivial skill.

And so the skill gap between train set owners and a significantly smaller population of model railroaders will return.

just my thoughts
Fred W
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#43
Your analysis is very good; however, I forsee other problems with the possibilities that you have mentioned.

First, the garage craftsmen need to bring in a certain income to offset their expenses and make a profit sufficient to keep them working, cover insurance, shipping, etc. The more advanced the items being constructed, the greater the cost. Working in brass requires a mini-machine shop. Working in resin or plastic requires high quality molds. Making laser cut kits requires a laser, which isn't cheap.

Second, the people have to advertise, and that is a decent expense that must also be covered by revenue, and yet these backroom manufacturers do not have the advantages of large scale production runs to hold down unit costs.

Lastly, with the shrinkage of the Chinese factories, the magazines will lose their primary sources of advertising income, and will be forced to raise their rates to the backroom outfits to maintain themselves viably, and this inflationary spiral will boost the entire range of costs to the modelers.
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#44
MountainMan Wrote:Your analysis is very good; however, I forsee other problems with the possibilities that you have mentioned.

First, the garage craftsmen need to bring in a certain income to offset their expenses and make a profit sufficient to keep them working, cover insurance, shipping, etc. The more advanced the items being constructed, the greater the cost. Working in brass requires a mini-machine shop. Working in resin or plastic requires high quality molds. Making laser cut kits requires a laser, which isn't cheap.

Garage craftsman kits are not cheap, and are not intended to be cheap. Typical cost is $30 per car when trucks, couplers, paint, and glue are included. Today's craftsman kits are intended to build high quality, highly detailed models. The savings comes in because it takes the customer significant time to build and finish a kit. I don't think I have ever completed more than one kit in a month. Approached in this fashion, a $40 a month hobby budget can work. OTOH, I will never build more than about 40 cars and a handful of locomotives and 20 structures in my foreseeable future (same was true for most model railroaders in the early '50s).

As for tooling costs, lasers, quality molds, photo engraving, lost wax casting equipment, and even 3D printers are far cheaper than cutting steel dies. Typically, less than $10K is needed for the tools to get started in producing low quantity craftsman kits for each of the production methods. Because of the comparatively low up-front investment, production runs of 50-200 items are entirely practical.

Quote:Second, the people have to advertise, and that is a decent expense that must also be covered by revenue, and yet these backroom manufacturers do not have the advantages of large scale production runs to hold down unit costs.

If you only produce 50 cars of a particular prototype (common run for a resin kit using 2 sets of molds), advertising can be as simple as an announcement on several specialty modeling forums. If you produce a model of a PRR box car from 1888, announcing on the PRR and Early Rail groups will probably sell out a run of 50 in short order. Advertising beyond getting the word out to likely customers is not needed.

Quote:Lastly, with the shrinkage of the Chinese factories, the magazines will lose their primary sources of advertising income, and will be forced to raise their rates to the backroom outfits to maintain themselves viably, and this inflationary spiral will boost the entire range of costs to the modelers.

I agree, the magazines are losing advertising revenue when compared to the past. Internet ordering already has taken away the 2-4 page spreads of the big mail order companies of the 1980s and earlier. If you notice, Model Railroader has reduced its content to keep the approximate same ratio with its advertising. Many cottage manufacturers take out a small blurb that simply gives their web site address and maybe a sentence or two about what they produce. And since Model Railroader charges more than the other magazines, and is perceived to have fewer craftsmen modelers in its readership, the advertisements tend to be in the other magazines. Magazines (like newspapers) are in trouble across the board - the old business model just isn't working that well.

The problem area for which there is no solution to emerge yet is model locomotive production. I doubt that locomotive kits are ever going to come back - although I would like them to. The skill levels to build a good-running and nicely detailed kit are quite a jump for most beginning model railroaders. Low rate production locomotive kits would (and the very few that are made do) cost more than today's plastic production at list price. So I don't see locomotive kits coming back up until Chinese production ratchets up another $200 or more per locomotive.

just my thoughts
Fred Wright
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#45
pgandw Wrote:
MountainMan Wrote:Your analysis is very good; however, I forsee other problems with the possibilities that you have mentioned.

First, the garage craftsmen need to bring in a certain income to offset their expenses and make a profit sufficient to keep them working, cover insurance, shipping, etc. The more advanced the items being constructed, the greater the cost. Working in brass requires a mini-machine shop. Working in resin or plastic requires high quality molds. Making laser cut kits requires a laser, which isn't cheap.

Garage craftsman kits are not cheap, and are not intended to be cheap. Typical cost is $30 per car when trucks, couplers, paint, and glue are included. Today's craftsman kits are intended to build high quality, highly detailed models. The savings comes in because it takes the customer significant time to build and finish a kit. I don't think I have ever completed more than one kit in a month. Approached in this fashion, a $40 a month hobby budget can work. OTOH, I will never build more than about 40 cars and a handful of locomotives and 20 structures in my foreseeable future (same was true for most model railroaders in the early '50s).

As for tooling costs, lasers, quality molds, photo engraving, lost wax casting equipment, and even 3D printers are far cheaper than cutting steel dies. Typically, less than $10K is needed for the tools to get started in producing low quantity craftsman kits for each of the production methods. Because of the comparatively low up-front investment, production runs of 50-200 items are entirely practical.


Quote:Second, the people have to advertise, and that is a decent expense that must also be covered by revenue, and yet these backroom manufacturers do not have the advantages of large scale production runs to hold down unit costs.

If you only produce 50 cars of a particular prototype (common run for a resin kit using 2 sets of molds), advertising can be as simple as an announcement on several specialty modeling forums. If you produce a model of a PRR box car from 1888, announcing on the PRR and Early Rail groups will probably sell out a run of 50 in short order. Advertising beyond getting the word out to likely customers is not needed.

Quote:Lastly, with the shrinkage of the Chinese factories, the magazines will lose their primary sources of advertising income, and will be forced to raise their rates to the backroom outfits to maintain themselves viably, and this inflationary spiral will boost the entire range of costs to the modelers.

I agree, the magazines are losing advertising revenue when compared to the past. Internet ordering already has taken away the 2-4 page spreads of the big mail order companies of the 1980s and earlier. If you notice, Model Railroader has reduced its content to keep the approximate same ratio with its advertising. Many cottage manufacturers take out a small blurb that simply gives their web site address and maybe a sentence or two about what they produce. And since Model Railroader charges more than the other magazines, and is perceived to have fewer craftsmen modelers in its readership, the advertisements tend to be in the other magazines. Magazines (like newspapers) are in trouble across the board - the old business model just isn't working that well.

The problem area for which there is no solution to emerge yet is model locomotive production. I doubt that locomotive kits are ever going to come back - although I would like them to. The skill levels to build a good-running and nicely detailed kit are quite a jump for most beginning model railroaders. Low rate production locomotive kits would (and the very few that are made do) cost more than today's plastic production at list price. So I don't see locomotive kits coming back up until Chinese production ratchets up another $200 or more per locomotive.

just my thoughts
Fred Wright

[b]Cannot read - yellow color is illegible.
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